Chapter 4: The Analysis of Foreign Policy

Summary

Imagine you are the Prime Minister of a state in Central Asia.

It appears that another state in the region, Azmenistan, which has long had a thriving civilian nuclear energy program, is enriching uranium and attempting to build a nuclear weapon. Satellite images seem to show evidence of weapons-related activity, and Azmenistan has recently stopped allowing international nuclear inspectors into the country.

The Foreign Minister of Azmenistan is coming to your state for an official visit this week. You and your Foreign Minister will be meeting with her. What do you do?

Important background information

What do you do?

Ignore the issueYou don't want to upset Azmenistan. You import needed goods from Azmenistan, and your good relations with the state provide important balance to the region. Focus the meeting on more pressing issues.
Raise the issue gentlyTell Azmenistan's Foreign Minister you are concerned that Azmenistan has expelled foreign inspectors, and ask whether Azmenistan has begun enriching uranium. Tell her that you are concerned that the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by any state in the region would seriously upset regional peace, and might push Brezistan to attempt to develop one, creating tremendous volatility in the region. Request that inspectors be allowed back in to Azmenistan.
Raise the issue firmly and directlyDemand that Azmenistan immediately stop enriching uranium, and demand that inspectors be allowed back in immediately. Declare that if these conditions are not met, your state will be forced to move closer to Brezistan diplomatically, and will consider Azmenistan a hostile neighbor rather than an ally.
Threaten military actionDeclare that if inspectors are not allowed back in and enrichment does not cease within one week, you will invade the country and shut down any enrichment efforts by force.